Good morning if you’ve come here from my article in The Age, Sydney Morning Herald, Brisbane Times or WA Today. I’m not here to freak you out any more than is already evident in the article, but there are tough times here. No easy, simple answers. No zippy structural changes which will bring the good times flying back.
But there are reasons for optimism – beyond just the fact that pessimism is the refuge of the weak.
* The US is about to elect a new leader: one who believes President George W. Bush has trashed the country’s international reputation – and understands why this is actually a problem. The presidency of Barack Obama is not going to be a sweeping broom or a magic wand, but after the ineptitude and ideologically-driven choices of the eight-year Bush administration, anything is an improvement.
* Stocks are cheap right now! The S&P 500 index just had its worst month since 1987, so there’s a lot of value in there which will tempt the last seven liquid investors in the world out of their caves.
Seriously, that’s about it. Every other sign is bad – things will get worse before they get better. But you knew that anyway. There’s no such thing as “this time it’s different”. The boom we laughed through – and largely wasted as the roaring of excess drowned out voices urging frugality – has a corresponding bust and we are it.
The party I described was in a lavish hilltop mansion and celebrated the launch of Qantas’ hulking A380 and the the impending departure of chief executive Geoff Dixon. Here’s some of what I had to cut out for length.
Guests listened intently as John Travolta proposed a toast.
The Pulp Fiction star paid tribute to Qantas’ new A380 aircraft before moving to his main thread, praise for outgoing chief executive Geoff Dixon.
Since he was a child, Travolta had wondered what an airline boss would be like. “Somewhere between an artist and a businessman,” he said, “And I couldn’t get over (Dixon’s) boldness and risk-taking abilities”.
At an astonishingly large Los Angeles hilltop mansion, 80 people stood and clinked their glasses in celebration.
Looking across the city, past the sixteenth-century masters in the lavish home of investment banker Alexander Cappello, you could feel numbingly insulated from the crises afflicting America: two wars, a stumbling economy and the destruction of domestic and global confidence in the country’s leadership.
But in the US you’re never far away from the edge, and in the valleys and plains of the expansive city, the fires that grew to burn bourses and economies around the world are still smouldering…
Dixon knows his boldness will be tested. This is not the most auspicious time to be launching a gleaming aircraft with 450 seats which Qantas expects people to pay “much more” for tickets.
The Stateside debut of the hulking aircraft is part of Dixon’s farewell tour, before Jetstar’s Alan Joyce takes the post next month.
“There’s a good deal of talk around the world right now about trust and confidence and I think rightly so,” Dixon said. “These are challenging times and when I say challenging I mean very, very challenging indeed.”
Earlier, on the tarmac, he was more expansive.
“Obviously the current economic situation makes things a bit difficult for airlines,” he said, the steel-framed elephant in the room dominating the background. “I’ve never known a good time in the aviation industry to launch anything.”
The theatre befitted the enormity of the purchase, with Travolta striding from the plane in his Qantas pilot uniform, his Grease co-star Olivia Newton-John beside him as a flight attendant.
The new plane is huge – 20 have been ordered – and the crowd was similar. Tourism Australia chair and former chair of the Coles Group, Rick Allert, joined the airline’s “ambassadors” fashion designer Peter Morrissey, industrial designer Marc Newson and chef Neil Perry, former chief executive James Strong and long-time Qantas executive John Becquet and his wife Victoria Police chief commissioner Christine Nixon.
AN ASIDE: For the second time since I’ve been in the States I think my reporting has accidently started a small international incident.

Despite the splendour of the party, it was hard to avoid talk of increasing unemployment rates, frozen inter-bank lending markets and slowing consumer spending.
The problems stretch far beyond the housing the mansion overlooks.
“We have to react,” said Robert Wrigley, director of government relations with the plane’s manufacturer Airbus. “Before the crisis and the price of fuel went up so high … the best thing (we) could do was get new aircraft out quickly. Both we and (US competitor) Boeing were sold out.”
Now production is being slowed – even in an industry where delivery is measured in years. “We’ve slowed down the ramp-up,” he added, which would have seen production increased from 36 to 40 planes annually.
“That’s for down the pipe.”
What’s down the pipe for the rest of us remains unknown.
More importantly: how are you feeling?